CII’s 107th edition of quarterly Business Outlook Survey is based on nearly 300 responses from large, medium, small and micro firms, covering all regions of the country.
The key findings of the survey include:
The CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) stood at the level of 59.6 in the April-June 2019 quarter. The current reading, though lower than the previous quarter level of 65.2, continues to indicate positive business confidence in the ongoing quarter.
About 34 percent of the respondents foresee 7.0%-7.5% growth in GDP in 2019-20, closely followed by 31 percent of them who feel that GDP growth may be a tad bit lower, in the 6.5%-7.0% range. Though growth expectations have been revised lower from the previous survey, they are largely in line with the RBI’s, recently revised, growth forecast of 7.0% for 2019-20.
A major share of the respondents (43 percent) expect to see an upward trajectory in inflation rates in 2019-20, while nearly a third of the respondents (32 percent) foresee no change in inflation rates in 2019-20.
Despite the cut in policy rates by the RBI in its first bi-monthly review meeting in April, around 47 percent of the respondents still feel that the central bank will cut policy rates further in 2019-20.
Companies have pinned hopes on the new government to launch India on a new growth trajectory and in this light, respondents have ranked ‘Ease of Doing Business’ and ‘Increasing investment in infrastructure’ as the top two areas which need to be a priority for the new government.