“COVID is not an equal opportunity employer, it devastates the poor with prosperity and equality both taking a hit” said Mr. Kevin Rudd, Former Prime Minister of Australia and President, Asia Society Policy Institute, in a wide ranging discussion at the CII Annual Session 2020.
Setting the context for the proceedings, Dr. Naushad Forbes, Past President CII & Co-Chairman, Forbes Marshall Private Limited, highlighted the unprecedented impact of the Coronavirus crisis on health systems and the widespread global response in terms of lockdowns of varying stringency which has affected over 60% of the World’s population. Dissecting its dramatic impact on the Indian economy which witnessed the GDP shrinking by an estimated 40% in April and increased unemployment, he was cautiously optimistic about a slow resumption to normalcy while stating that there was still a long way to go.
Responding to a question by Dr. Forbes on the future of the Asia Pacific Region in a Post Covid World, Mr. Rudd was of the opinion that the simmering rivalry between the United States and China was greatly undermining the Global Economic order as well as Legacy Institutions such as the United Nations. “At a National Level, the binary pull of what I call the Cold War 1.5 between the United States and China may start to pull individual nation states in one direction or another, thereby undermining the existing Global order”, he said.
Echoing Mr. Rudd’s views on the matter, Mr Ashley J Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, placed great emphasis on the role of the United States while acknowledging that there scope for China or India to emerge as strong contenders in the Indo-Pacific region. He also expressed some concern regarding the future of globalisation should a multi-polar world emerge out of the current crisis.
Much of the discussion also centred on the impact of the pandemic and the ongoing Sino-US trade war on the Chinese economy. Panellists agreed that while China is still a critical cog in the global economic system, its recent actions are primarily an attempt to project Global power amidst a broad-based economic slowdown.
On the question of an ASEAN plus construct emerging as a globally legitimate institution, Mr. Kevin Rudd stressed on the importance of initiating cross country dialogue and security building measures between nations across the region. Adding to this view, Mr. Ashley Tellis advised against viewing the Indo Pacific region as a form of Proto-Containment zone against China and instead stressed on viewing the region as a genuine device to strengthen a rules based global order.
He commended Prime Minster Narendra Modi for his statesmanship and deft handling of an increasingly aspirational China at Shangri La Dialogue in 2018. In his view, such interventions could go a long way in building an Indo Pacific region that fosters greater cooperation and prosperity in the future.
2 June 2020
New Delhi