CII’s 105th edition of quarterly Business Outlook Survey is based on more than 150 responses from large, medium, small and micro firms, covering all regions of the country.
The key findings of the survey include:
The CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) for October-December 2018 quarter moderated to the level of 61.8, as compared to the peak reading of 64.9 recorded in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, the BCI continues to stand above the level of 60 for the fourth consecutive month signifying upbeat business sentiment.
Nearly two-thirds of the respondents (64 percent) anticipate GDP growth between 7.0-8.0% in 2018-19. Growth expectations have inched up as compared to the previous quarter, where a similar proportion of respondents (64 percent) expected GDP growth in 6.5-7.5% range.
More than half of the respondents (55 percent) feel that inflation will lie in the 4.0-5.0% range in 2018-19, closely followed by 29 percent of them who feel that inflation may stand lower, in the range of 3.0-4.0% in 2018-19.
Large proportion of the respondents (31 percent) feel that the RBI will maintain status quo on policy rates, closely followed by 25 percent of the respondents who anticipate a 25 bps hike in policy rates going forward in 2018-19.
Four out of five respondents (80 percent) feel that the recent rise in global oil prices and INR depreciation has affected their input costs while only 20 percent of them have remained unaffected by this global change.
The current liquidity crunch has impacted 51 percent of the respondents, who have experienced difficulties in managing their financing needs. Out of this set of respondents, a significant proportion (81 percent) have admitted that banks or NBFCs are now seeking additional collateral for loan disbursal.